Prologue

A big white disc rose softly above a dark sleepy city on Tuesday, February 5th. The disc was the Moon, and the city was Vancouver.

The Moon was comfortable: the yappin’ year of the Dog was over, the trufflin’ year of the Pig was about to begin, and the Vancouver Canucks were sitting with about 30% odds to make the NHL playoffs. Surprised at the Canucks’ success so far, the Moon hopped on Google to see what was going on.

The Canadian media was typically divided: for every article suggesting that the Canucks could make the playoffs, there was one reminded us that they could fall off a cliff. For every article wondering how far that cliff might fall, there was one speculating how the moss forming on the side of the cliff might affect the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Moon was confused. No one seemed know what this team really is or what it could be.

And so I thought maybe we could turn to the Chinese Zodiac for answers.

Introduction of Study:

This post will examine the relationship between the Chinese Zodiac and the Vancouver Canucks’ performance in the regular season. It is the first of three posts on the subject:

This post (1/3) will cover the Canucks’ regular season results
Sunday’s post (2/3) will cover the Canucks’ playoff results
Monday’s post (3/3) will cover the Canucks’ draft results

Just in case you’re already bored and don’t read on: the Canucks were actually created in the year of the Dog (1970). That means the number 11 is particularly unlucky for the team.

So yeah, this is legit.

The Chinese Zodiac

The Zodiac consists of 12 creatures in a specific sequence: Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat, Monkey, Cock, Dog, and Pig. Each is assigned to a specific year and has specific traits.

The Canucks Regular Season History

The first tough reminder here is that the Canucks has played a lot of sub-500 hockey in their history. It’s difficult to say that any year is really that auspicious for a club that has returned home winless from the Stanley Cup Final 3/3 times and has a high of 52.8 win% with any given sign.

Furthermore, it needs to be said that there can be a pretty extreme variance in results for a given sign: the year of the Ox, for example, includes both the excellent 08/09 season as well as the disastrous 72/73 season. The Cock brought Pettersson at the 2017 draft, but also a leaguewide lockout in the 04/05 season, which many feel denied a superb Canucks core a year of contention in their prime.

Regardless, certain years seem good to the Canucks and others spell doom.

The Good(ish):

Year of the Monkey
1979-80, 1991-92, 2003-04, 2015-16

This may be a surprise, but the year of the Monkey saw good returns for the squad, including Bure’s debut with the team (91/92) a strong 03/04 season, and the breakout sophomore season of Stan Smyl. The Monkey is the lord of chaos, however, and this includes some of most serious blackmarks on Canucks history, including the tragic Bertuzzi-Moore incident (03/04) and Willie Desjardin’s tough second season as head coach (15/16).

Year of the Goat
1978-79, 1990-91, 2002-03, 2014-15

While the year of the Goat was tough on the team the first couple times around, it’s been good in the 21^st century. This saw the heyday of the West Coast Express in the 02/03 season and the surprise bounce back of the 2014/15 season. Now, you may be thinking that 2015 was actually a disappointment given the team’s early exit in the playoffs, but please take a second to remember that they drafted Brock Boeser – a literal GOAT – 2 months later.

Year of the Dragon
1975/76, 1987-88, 1999-00, 2011-12

The results in this year are buoyed by the Canucks second of back-to-back President’s Trophies in the 2011/12 season, as well as a surprise playoff appearance in 1975/76. We also saw Trevor Linden drafted in 1988. 2012 also stands out to me as it was the first time I met Jason Botchford personally at a wheat-and-greet. This year doesn’t bode particularly well for the Canucks in the playoffs, however (more on this Sunday.)

The Bad:

Year of the Tiger
1973/74, 1985/86, 1997/98, 2009/10

The one bright spot is the 2009-10 season; where the Sedin core became too good for the NHL, Hank picked up the Art Ross, but the simple tune of Chelsea Dagger transformed from goal song to literal poison. The team sucked in the 70s and 80s as per normal.

But worst of all, a single shaved, stripeless Tiger rained misery on this franchise in the ’98 season: Mark Messier.

Year of the Ox
1972/73, 1984/85, 1996/97, 2008/09

This is another example of the Canucks’ renting a hot-windowed suite on the southside of Pooptown; they were sub-50 in win-percentage every Ox-year until 2009. And what happened then? Doo – dododo…

Year of the Rat
1971/72, 1983/84, 1995/96, 2007/08

It seems crazy, but this has nothing to do with Marchand. Frankly, I’m as disappointed as you are. I started this whole article hoping this joke would work. But it doesn’t. Instead, the year of the Rat stands out as one where the Canucks’ didn’t have too many highs or too many lows; they were just pretty mediocre – the last kid down the slide in the playoffs in ’84 and ’96 – and missing out entirely otherwise.

The Rest:

Year of the Rabbit
1974-97, 1986-87 1998/99, 2010/11

It wasn’t the golden ticket, but by god it was something. The Sedins define the Year of the Rabbit for Vancouver, drafted in 1999 and leading the team to one game from the Stanley Cup in 2011. These two weird Swedes redefined class and creativity in the National Hockey League for nearly 20 others.

Year of the Horse
1977-78, 1989-90, 2001-02, 2013-14

This is one of the Canucks’ worst Zodiac signs on the whole, but it’s more mired by mediocrity than it is a disaster. The Canucks slipped on a banana peel in ’78, smacked their faced into it in ’90, got up and shook it off in ’02, and then were coached by John Tortorella in ’14.

Year of the Snake
1967-77, 1988-89, 2000-01, 2012-13

You can’t have the yin without the yang, my friend: the year of the Snake brought Canucks both the beginning of great things (Linden’s rookie season in ’89) and the end of shit things; Messier left.

Year of the Cock
1980-81, 1992-93, 2004-05, 2016-17

“The 2004-05 team could have made a legit run,” I whisper as my hand swats at the left turn signal.

“What’s that?” my fiancée asks, thumbing through her purse.

“Nothing. I’m in the mood for a snack. Let’s stop somewhere.”

Year of the Dog
1981-82, 1993-94, 2005-06, 2017-18

Remember, we are only talking regular season. In the post-season, of course, the year of the Dog is one of pure heroics for the Vancouver Canucks. But when it comes to regular season results, this is the Canucks’ most average: 0.481, 0.506, 0.561, and 0.445 over the last four cycles.

Year of the Pig (This Season)
1970-71, 1982-93, 1994-95, 2006-07, 2018-19

This is where it gets tricky. The Canucks average just 0.492 on points in the year of the Pig, but they’ve also surprisingly made the playoffs 3 out of 4 times.

But in statistics we must look at trends, and the Canucks trend to a downturn from Dog to Pig years. As such, the Zodiac suggests that the Canucks will finish slightly lower point percentage from last year.

Prediction for this Year:

History tells us the Canucks will end up with a surprisingly weak point total this year, just around 72 points, good for something around 25^th in the league. The Canucks are just 18 points off from last year’s final standings with 27 games remaining. They’ll have to go 1 – 2 – 0 for the remainder of the season to match it. That seems pretty darn rough for a somewhat healthy squad.

That might sound like an insane drop given that they are in a playoff spot, but as of writing the Canucks are also only 4 points away from 25^th.

Prediction for Coming Years:

This is where things get scary. The ensuing years of the Rat, Ox, and Tiger have all been traditionally tough on the Canucks. The Chinese Zodiac seems to be firmly in the “Linden” camp, arguing that this team is still a few years away from meaningful contention.

It gives this team a timeline of 3 more years of struggle before they begin to dominate their division in the 2023 season.

Until Next Time

All that said, the Pig shows us a history of the Canucks squeaking into the playoffs. I guess wee-wee-wee’ll have to talk about that on Sunday when we look at playoff results.

 

For some reason the Canucks and the Oilers met midseason tonight to battle over playoff contention. I didn’t expect this, you didn’t expect it, and I’m not sure the players did either. But here we are, with the Canucks still within arms reach of a playoff spot, and the Oilers still confounding everyone with their ability to struggle.

It’s a surprise, to be sure – but a welcome one. While prudence tells us the Canucks’ rebuild is far from over and most fans started the season dreaming of Jack Hughes, the idea of leapfrogging the McDavid-led Oilers back into relevance is absolutely irresistible.
And tonight’s game really mattered to the players. Energized, physical, passionate hockey is just fun to watch.

For whatever reason, I really got into it. Sometimes it’s nice to just cheer for your underdog team as they face off against… another… underdog…? The Oilers are an underdog too, right? Just in a different way.

It’s like, the Canucks are the dog that tears up the living room sometimes, but the Oilers are the one that obsessively eats its own shit.

Period by Period:

First: The Oilers outshot the Canucks in the first, but there was no shortage of opportunities for either team. Special teams were decisive here, with the Canucks both scoring and allowing a goal on the man advantage, and the Oilers also capitalizing with an extra gentleman on the ice. Edmonton finished with 12 shots to Vancouver’s 5.

Second: More hits, penalties, and goals. Well, one more goal. The Canuck’s forecheck continued to frustrate the Oilers but both teams struggled to actually get many pucks on net. The two teams finished with 6 shots a piece.

Third: As tends to happen, both teams played a slightly more reserved game in the third. Presumably, each squad got an intermission message to keep mistakes and penalties to a minimum.

It was a pretty boring period, but at least Del Zotto got traded.

Overtime: Some absolutely manic moments in OT tonight:

This whole thing starts with Jake muscling off McDavid’s attempt to drive the net.

Shootout: Markstrom was amazing. The Canucks’ shooters weren’t. That’s the shootout.

Oilers Goals:

First: Khaira scores the most EANHL goal ever. Just spin around and around until there’s an opening, cut in and then roof it.

Second: The second PK unit actually had a fantastic shift just preceding this, but when McDavid has the puck in the neutral zone and you go for a line change, you are asking for trouble. Tanev and co. don’t have time to set up. McDavid carries the puck in and somehow scores.

Horvat:

Horvat couldn’t buy a goal this game despite some nice opportunities and some typically solid plays.  You could see the frustration build as the game went on. This miss in particular was just brutal to watch:

He really was a part of several high danger opportunities:

And he nearly ended the game in OT with a gorgeous move:

On another night, like against the Bruins at home earlier this season, Bo would have scored that goal. We’d all be talking about his strength, his ascendancy to leadership, and his indefatigable determination. But this is a game of inches, and he was just a couple inches from heroics tonight.

No matter; those moments will continue to come.

Granlund:

Hmm. If he’s got 2 goals in 2 games, I should probably give Granlund a bit of credit. He does a nice job of finishing here after a nice bit of forechecking from Schaller + Leivo on a Stecher dump-in:

The trio generated a very similar opportunity shortly after, except this time it just resulted in your typical jam-at-the-puck-jam-at-the-puck-jam-at-the-puck scrum in front of the net.

That’s more like it.

I’m not going give this a separate section, but Granlund’s linemate Leivo also gave of one of the fanciest moments of the night.

Look at those moves.

Motte:

I am big fan of the way Motte won himself a spot on this team in the pre-season, and he puts in a pretty consistent “good 4th line performance.” He just doesn’t produce a lot of highlights, so I don’t have much to show here. I wanted to give him some mention regardless.

Gudbranson:

Erik showed off some his physicality tonight, making some hard plays early.

Then he absolutely destroyed Jones in the third.

Hutton:

Huttsy Bo Buttsy doesn’t even need to be standing up to shut down McDavid.

But seriously, Hutton was robbed of a gorgeous goal on a coach’s challenge (the puck was offside earlier on.)

The shot is great, but really his puck movement and passing on this play stands out just as much. Too bad it was all for naught.

Boeser:

Brock looked pretty confident out the gate, creating a nice opportunity for himself early in the first.

While I’ll never criticize creativity, sometimes you’d like to see him shoot.

He’s missing Pettersson as much as anyone.

Virtanen:

Before I say anything, this sequence is a great display of Jake’s toolkit in action:

He flips the puck out, chases it down, bodies two Oilers off it and sends a nice centering pass to Sutter. If he’d pounded 15 Old Milwaukees and crushed a McGangbang on this shift, it would have been the perfect demonstration of his talents. Really nice.

Tonight was an important night for Jake. He was stuck on the Sutt-down line with Roussel and Sutter, and that that meant big tough minutes for the big tough boy from Abbotsford.

I’ve mentioned before that this line is kind of a mixed blessing for him; on one hand, it means he has completely earned Green’s trust and is developing the defensive side of his game. On the other hand, it doesn’t exactly mean a lot of offensive opportunities.

That said, the trio were fast and effective in the first. Effective forechecking created a solid chance early, and he was instrumental in the play leading up to Sutter’s powerplay goal.

Nice puck recovery, movement and passing on that shift – not to mention the screen. I like what I’m seeing out of him on the powerplay.

He also nearly ended the game just before overtime with a great burst of speed.

While his scoring has dried up recently compared to the Shotgun Jake days earlier this season, it still feels like we are inching closer and closer to his true breakout moment. Either way, I particularly enjoyed his contributions tonight in what was overall a great game.

Next game: Friday, January 18 vs. Buffalo – Battle of the Expansion Twins

 

Introduction and Methodology

I was thinking about something unique I could take a look at earlier this week, and then it came to me: ice time. What if we examine across the season thus far and see if anything interesting pops out? So I set about grabbing ice time per game for Canucks with a minimum of 20 games played.

About 5 minutes into throwing time-on-ice tables from hockeyreference into Excel, I realized this was a terrible idea.

Since any change to a given players’ ice time ends up getting a lot of discussion when it occurs, by now everyone already has a rough idea of how team deployment has played out over the season.

Doing a macro analysis is probably frivolous, then, because at best I’ll be confirming things people already know, and at worst I’ll be creating the graphical equivalent of a box of tangled Christmas lights:

Deciding that maybe something could be salvaged from this monstrosity, I decided to forge ahead.

Variance in Deployment

Looking at time on ice across the season at least gave me the chance to look at each player’s standard deviation from their mean TOI.

The higher the number, the greater the range of results varies from the mean, which basically tells you how much variance players have had in their deployment across the season.

However, the problem here is that ice time can vary for a very wide range of reasons. Injuries naturally account for huge swings in ice time. For example, Ben Hutton (more on him later) played just 13:41 in his first game of the season, but also played a team high of 29:25 one game when Edler was out with injury. Penalties taken and penalties drawn also cause big game-to-game differences for individual players depending on their special teams deployment. Another factor is opposition deployment, as Green notably likes to match lines – particularly with the use of shut down lines.

All of this is to say that this information is useless without knowing the context of individual players, at which point we should just be looking at them individually, thus again making this macro analysis pointless.

But there are some interesting things in there. Not only is Jake getting more ice time this season, he’s getting some of the most consistent deployment. His old 10 minute nightly performances have been bumped to a consistent 15, which is no small feat (am I right fellas? Heyoooo.)

Pouliot varies like crazy, likely due to the powerplay chances he got for the first quarter of the season which were later claimed by Hutton. Goldobin has bounced around a lot. Stecher sits firmly in the middle of the pack in both ATOI and variability. Tanev gives you a reliable 20 minutes a night no-questions-asked.

Confirming what intuition already told us about individual deployment variance, let’s move to examining our different cohorts.

Backend Boys

Taking a closer look at defencemen, a couple things immediately stick out: there’s a positive correlation in ice time between defenseman that play on the same pairing and a negative correlation between defenceman that play the same position. This is a pretty good example of something that in academia is sometimes called arguing folk wisdom – taking a needlessly complex approach to confirming something very obvious.

One thing this does illustrate, however, is how important Edler’s injury time likely was for Ben Hutton. His ice time not only jumped during that period but was consistently elevated afterward. He seized the opportunity to prove something to Green. We can also see that Pouliot has been trending pretty poorly. Stecher was trending in the right direction before the hit in game 37, sinking his ice time for that game and leaving him out for a few matches.

I also want to mention here that the first couple times I included MDZ in this graph the formatting went haywire. I don’t like to criticize players too harshly, but in this case I was pretty disappointed in him. He was cut.

Golden Boys

If you ask anyone about who on the current roster is untouchable, these three names will pop up the most. There isn’t too much to draw from this. Powerplays play a big role for deployment for Boeser and Pettersson. Boeser’s scoring stretches naturally coincide with his time stuck to Pettersson, and his “down” period have been with Horvat, as the two have surprisingly not seen the same chemistry as last year.

Regardless, with the spectre of Sutter playing big minutes haunting fans at the beginning of the season, the elevated deployment of Horvat and Pettersson has been is nice.

Battle Boys

These are the forwards that should fit the ethos of the Canucks’ Battle Brand – they are meant to play tough checking roles and chip in offensively once in a while. They are a blend of young, youngish, old, and oldish.

These guys are all over the place. There’s not much correlation between their usage, partially because I grouped them as guys that get varied deployment, mostly in the bottom nine. I’ve enjoyed Roussel’s ability to slot in up and down the lineup, and Motte has played very well with his mostly-limited deployment.

Eriksson’s usage is pretty consistent. Granlund has really benefited from injuries to the rest of the Canucks’ centre group this season, but even with a fairly healthy group Green likes to rely on him.

Lost Boys

At the beginning of the season I labeled these three as the Misfits because of their combination of potential and challenges. Now I am labeling them the Lost Boys because it fits my titling scheme. Regardless, these three are Green’s project players, which means a very tight leash and so their deployment is quite interesting.

It’s been very pleasant to see 2 out of the 3 earn Green’s trust and gain more consistent ice time as the season progresses. Most notable is Hutton, who deserves a lot of credit for tackling the deficiencies in his game and fitness from last year. Jake has seen a gradual improvement as well, continuing a trend from the end of last season.

That leaves us with Goldobin, who has struggled to earn ice time aside from a period of excellence alongside Pettersson. While it might be discouraging to see him in the doghouse over the last few weeks, Hutton and Virtanen are evidence that Green doesn’t blacklist players; that ice time is still there for Goldobin to win.

Tim Schaller and Michael Del Zotto… Boys

At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be much point comparing a depth forward and a depth defenceman. Aside from their similar contract structures and replaceable performances, there doesn’t seem to be much connection between the two.

But on further inspection, it becomes evident that together they form a kind of pre-cambrian toad that emerged from the depths to lay eggs in the Canucks’ press box:

Conclusion

Ice hockey players play ice hockey on ice for intermittent periods and variable lengths of time. Also, it is important to have a clear research question before you start gathering data.

Finally, please be aware that the amateur graphs were a deliberate choice; I felt Tableau wouldn’t have the same immersive effect for the reader as they explore this near total waste of 4 1/2 hours of time.

To keep up to date with this and other frivolous analysis, follow me on Twitter @pacific_hockey.

We’re All Tired After a Break

The Coyotes are a team of players that have names, and one of those names is Brad Richardson. He used to play on the Canucks before he played on the Coyotes. One day he was playing hockey and his leg got broken by a Russian named Tryamkin, who now lives in Russia and waves at the Canucks on instagram.

A couple seasons back, it was easy to get riled up over Coyotes games, but now that Hanzal and Smith are gone what animosity was there seems to have faded. Any friendly Domi-Horvat rivalry that existed is gone now, too. Does anyone even care about Boeser vs. Keller?

It’s tough to think of an interesting way to introduce this game, and I’m not alone in thinking that. The Sportsnet “key to the game” in the pre-game show was literally just “score.”

The sluggish lack of excitement among media and fans was a harbinger of the game to come.

Period by Period:

First: Both teams hadn’t played in a while, and boy howdy it showed. This was pre-season hockey in January. The Canucks got their first shot on goal 16 minutes in, and the Coyotes didn’t do much better.

This zone entry was the only nice play from the Canucks in the entire period:

Shots: Arizona 7, Vancouver 5.

Second: The Coyotes opened up scoring on a still-sloppy game by capitalizing on some tough Canucks errors. This seemed to wake both teams up, and the Canucks responded quickly afterward. The play both sped and tightened up by halfway through the period. The Canucks had several chances on the powerplay and Gaudette potted his third of the season with a couple minutes remaining.

The period ended with a bit of rough stuff; by now both teams remembered that they were professional hockey clubs.

Shots: Arizona 6, Vancouver 14.

Third: The third period started sloppy, but neither seemed satisfied to play for the regulation tie. Several opportunities at both ends and plenty of turnovers marked this period. It wasn’t a surprise to see the Coyotes take the lead on some sloppy defence from the Canucks, and it wasn’t a surprise to see the Canucks tie it up again afterward. Credit to both teams for playing for the win despite all the mistakes.

Shots: Arizona 8, Vancouver 14.

Overtime: Lots of waiting for line changes, as is often the case with OT these days.

Boeser made a fancy little move at one point:

I was really cheering for a Baertschi goal here, but it wasn’t meant to be. Panik scored a nice snipe on Markstrom to win the game.

Shots: Arizona 1, Vancouver 3.

Special Teams:

Powerplay: The powerplay actually looked quite effective, with Baerstchi contributing to some very nice passing plays. They failed to capitalize, however.

Penalty Kill: The Canucks held off a languid Coyotes offense in a powerplay that overlapped the first and second periods, and another in the third.

Arizona Goals

Goal 1: Gudbranson’s clearing attempt becomes a turnover in the neutral zone. Granlund has an easy check here but instead falls over. The puck finds its way back to Gudbranson again. He throws it around to Tanev who fumbles the puck and Arizona capitalizes. Tanev clearly blames himself for this, but really this entire sequence is an insane comedy of errors.

Goal 2: Cousins planted himself in front of the net and the puck totally legally connected with his moving foot that absolutely did not deliberately direct it into the net.

Nope, no kicking here:

Goal 3: Another comedy of errors. Gaudette fails to clear, Hutton gets danced, and Gudbranson gets his stick on the pass only to tip the puck to the goalscorer.

Goldobin:

Tonight was an important game for 77. His challenge has been proving to Green that he can play with someone other than Pettersson. Aside from the nice zone entry above, Gudbranson sprung him for the breakaway in the second.

No call on that play.

Baertschi:

Baerstchi scored on a slick deke following a redemptive interception by Tanev. If you aren’t familiar, Baertschi is one of those strange players that has maintained a shooting percentage above 15% his whole career. This kind of deceptive play is the reason why:

He had a decent chance off a Boeser feed in the second, shooting for the deflection off a net-front Horvat. In general, he was visible and dangerous on every shift.

My favourite moment of his tonight was on the man advantage in the second. He sets up Goldobin twice with a couple of beautiful passes:

A little while later, the Canucks are down 3 – 2 with 4 minutes remaining. And then bada-bing, bada-boom – goal number 2. He was the most dynamic player on the ice tonight and it’s great to have him back in full stride.

What’s visible on this play is not just his goal, but also the tough work he was putting in along the boards all game. Crazy to imagine that this was once a supposed perimeter player with work ethic issues in Calgary.

Green:

Green lost the coach’s challenge on Cousin’s goal, and to be honest I really thought he should have had this one. Looks like it wasn’t just the players who were a little rusty tonight.

Gaudette:

Ohhh baby! I like the feed from Roussel to Sutter to start this whole sequence off, but man it’s great to see Gaudette score in his first game back with the big club. Have to love that celebration, too.

He had no shortage of chances earlier this season, but if he starts scoring now, you better believe his stint in Utica will get some credit for it.

Wrap-up:

The Canucks outshot the Coyotes 36 to 22 tonight, maintaining loose control over the game from the second period onward. It was a tired, sloppy hockey game – the kind you inevitably get when you’ve finally convinced your non-hockey-fan buddy to sit down and watch a game with you.

The Canucks come away with a point, and the Coyotes picked up two. I’m not sure either team deserved any. This felt like a pre-season effort, and I’m looking forward to this Vancouver squad getting back to where they should be.

Next game: January 13th, Florida @ Vancouver. The Matheson grudge match.

Stecher might not be winning the Norris or the Hart this season, but he’s my early pick for one of the toughest trophies to win in hockey: the Canucks Unsung Hero award. This trophy is so exclusive, 90% of the league isn’t even eligible. But Troy is, and he’s my early pick.

Why? Because I wanted an excuse to talk about how actually-good he is.

Stecher was a healthy scratch at one point this season, he sits somewhere in the middle of the totem pole in terms of media coverage and fan chatter, but despite all this Troy from Richmond is putting together an excellent 2018-19 campaign. In just his third season in the NHL, Stecher is establishing himself as a bonafide 3-4 defenceman.

First, let’s take a look at some of his underlying numbers.

Stecher has the best goals-above-replacement on the team of anyone not-named Elias Pettersson. Since he doesn’t get much powerplay time, that production is almost all coming at even strength. He also draws penalties at a good clip (pens_GAR), which is a testament to his style of relentlessly dogging opposition forwards and going deep into the boards.

His points-per-game has recovered to 0.29 from a dip to 0.16 last season. While his expected goals-for (eGF) is down (partially a function of his declining shot rates), so is his e(GA), which translates into a more shut-down defence play-style a la Chris Tanev. Most importantly, *he’s a plus-9 on the season, folks.*

Comparing heat maps of his on-ice shots from hockeyviz.com, it becomes evident that Stecher is doing a better job of generating chances in the opposition’s end and limiting them in the Canucks’ end. If you aren’t familiar with these, the map on the left indicates shots for in the opposition zone, and the map on the right indicates shots against in the Canucks’ zone. Red is more, blue is less.

From 2017-18:

From 2018-19:

The increase in opportunities in the oppositions low slot is significant, as is the decrease in shots against in the Canucks high slot. It appears Stecher is doing a better job of forcing shots to the outside alongside contributing to high-danger opportunities in the opposition zone.

The Pouliot Partnership

Stecher’s most common partner has been Derrick Pouliot this year (296 minutes together at even strength, roughly 60% of his ice time), and he seems to have thrived in this role despite possible challenges. Granted, Pouliot is probably an upgrade from Del Zotto, who shared 37% of his ice time last year, but also a downgrade from Edler, who shared 42% of his ice time.

In a way, this means Stecher is being consistently trusted with more responsibility alongside another young defenceman this year, rather than bouncing back and forth between veterans of varying quality.

Given Pouliot’s propensity for glaring mistakes, a cursory look at the stats for the pairing suggests they haven’t been as bad as one might expect, as demonstrated by NaturalStatTrick’s Line Tool.

They both perform better together, and Pouliot appears to benefit from the pairing perhaps slightly more than Stecher does.

Entertainment Value

To top it all off, he’s fun to watch on the ice. He doggedly attacks opposition forwards when they have the puck and skates like a madman when he has control. He’s forcing guys to the outside and limiting high-danger chances at a good clip. Also, his helmet has fallen off more times than any other Canuck player this season (twice), giving us the bonus visual of his hair whipping around while he plays for his hometown team. His contributions are manifold.

Seriously, look at him go. Are you kidding me?

Beyond performance, sports is all about stories, and Stecher’s is one of the best. Undrafted? Check. Undersized? Check. Local boy? Check. He’s got all the makings of your prototypical underdog fan favourite, and frankly I’ve bought in. He’s also pretty well-spoken, with a charming intensity in interviews (start at 4:18):

Powerplay Ponderings

All that thrown together, I often wonder why the Canucks don’t test him out more as a RHD option on the powerplay. With Green prefering a 4 forward, 1 defenseman setup, he is naturally further down the depth chart than Edler or Hutton, but I can’t help but wonder if this is actually the optimal set up for the second powerplay unit.

It’s no secret that the Canucks’ powerplay unit has struggled. In particular, they have struggled at controlled offensive zone entries, something which Stecher is effective at. Here’s an example of what I mean:

Less of that, please. Why not try a 3 forward, 2 defenceman set up for the second unit powerplay with both Hutton and Stecher on the backend? At very least, he might help PP2 with their nasty habit of conceding short handed goals.

Perhaps swap out Granlund, who as of writing only has 2 more points than Stecher on the season. I’m just throwing stuff at the wall here because I’d like to see what the Richmond Rebel can do on the powerplay, and I do wonder why the Canucks have tried harder to see if there’s a way to slot him in.

Come on Green, just Troy it out.

I like Troy Stecher

We often talk about the dearth of RHD in the Canucks system, but man alive would it look worse if they hadn’t snagged the diligent d-man from UND. This only being his third year in the league, he is developing into a very reliable option on the blue line.

In conclusion, I like Troy Stecher. The only way he loses Unsung Hero this year is if Pettersson sweeps the rest of the team awards and the team feels obliged to give Bo something. But Bo is notably well-sung.

So Stecher going to be my unsung hero pick until he’s completely sung – and even then, I’ll probably want to sing him some more.

Welcome to the January 8, 2019 edition of the Canucks’ Father Power Rankings.

This is a power ranking of Canucks’ fathers based on their performances in Canucks media productions. These aren’t traditional power rankings in the sense that I won’t be giving a complete list from top to bottom, but instead I will be discussing the top 5 dads, 5 wildcard dads, and 5 dads I’d like to see more of.

There are two main reasons for this structure rather than a simple top-to-bottom ranking:

1) With some players moving up and down from Utica, it becomes difficult to say which dads are eligible for inclusion.

2) I simply could not in good conscience list any father in last place. This policy may change if Cody Hodgson returns to the team.

I plan for this to be a bi-annual exercise with 2 main installments: a Father’s trip edition and a Father’s day edition. This schedule may be revised depending on how much dad-related content the Canucks put out.

While I do take into account all performances since October, please consider this piece to be a belated reflection on the October father’s trip. Without further ado, let’s get into it.

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Dads I’d like to see more of:

As the title suggests, these are some dads that we’ve seen hints of but need to see more.

Number 5: Peder Nilsson

This is more of a lament than anything. By losing the Nilsson the Canucks also lost his dad, who Ben Hutton described as “the most jacked, fit dad” on the team. As you can see in the photo, the guy is an absolute tank. How do the Canucks expect to keep Pettersson safe if they keep losing size like this?

Number 4: Bob Schaller

Tim Schaller may be a depth acquisition but his dad is not. I have a lot of love for Bob’s thick New England accent. There’s something about the way he says “we got a lotta squirrels in New Hampshire” that makes me want to see more of this guy.

Number 3: Wayne Gudbranson

Erik’s father is the CEO of a firm working in tech industry analysis. He’s got erudite and fairly articulate to boot, so I’d like to see more of this guy, but we’ve only seen a few clips of him. His joke, “the graveyards are all full; people are dying to get in” was pretty good.

Number 2: Brent Sutter

The Sutter family is basically hockey royalty in Canada, and so seeing Brent on the father’s trip alongside the rest of the dads was unique and also kind of funny. So many of the backstage amenities would mean absolutely nothing to him, and you wonder how much time he spent answering questions about the good old days from all the other dads.

Number 1: Mr. Goldobin

Nikolai Goldobin’s father didn’t join on the annual father’s trip because “Russia too far.” I won’t speculate on what actually kept him away, but management clearly has an issue with Russian dad acquisition and development. This is concerning, to say the least.

The Wildcards:

These are dads that have made a really strong impression this season, showing off unique character and making the case that they could jump into the top 5 at any moment.

Number 5: Doug Gaudette

Again, I’m a sucker for any New England accent. I’m also a sucker for a good story, and the pure joy in Doug’s face on the father’s trip couldn’t be beat. “This is just unbelievable, we kinda pinched each other a couple times yesterday” he said of the father’s trip. “How do you like them apples?” he also probably said of Adam’s 104 career assists at Northeastern University.

Keep an eye on this guy to climb the rankings over the coming years. The future is bright.

Number 4: Mike Tanev

Cool as a cucumber, just like his son. Something of a regular over the years, Mike makes an understated but essential contribution to the team. He might not have the offensive flash of some of the others (he couldn’t think of a dad joke on the spot, saying instead “I guess I’m the joke”), but his defensive acumen is unrivaled: his immediate reaction to a goal in Vegas was to say “these guys after a goal, they’re gonna come hard. We’ve gotta go that way.” A perennially-underrated pillar of this core.

Number 3: Peter Stecher

You’ve got to love a local story, and Troy’s dad is no different. Like Mike Tanev, Peter didn’t have a dad joke prepared for the Canucks’ media segment but instead said “I’m the joke.” I would suggest that this is the most dad joke of all, since we saw two different dads independently think of it on the spot. Good team chemistry and a gracious attitude land Peter firmly in the wildcard tier.

Number 2: The Stranger

I’m not even sure if he’s a dad or not, but this fella in a nice cowboy hat kept popping up in the footage of the Canucks’ father’s trip. He’s sipping Gatorade instead of sarsaparilla, but something tells me this Stranger has one heck of a tale to tell.

Number 1: Travis Green

The only thing keeping Travis Green out of the top 5 is the fact that he isn’t actually the father of an active Canuck. But he is a father in real life, and I have immense respect that as someone raising a child with autism he has been very candid and active at various Canucks Autism Network events.

Furthermore, I love Green as a coach, and a coach is kind of like the dad of a team. Growing up my soccer coach definitely felt like a father to me. Granted, he was also my biological father. But I digress.

Top Five Dads

Alright, here’s where it gets good. The top five was damn difficult, and even a slight to my analytical model could see these in totally different order, but here’s where we land today.

Number 5: Rainer Virtanen

Jake’s family comes across as very mild-mannered and charming. Rainer almost has a Bill Hader quality to him, which stands out to me amongst hockey dads. He’s also a local boy. But what really pushes Rainer into the top 5 is that supposedly he personally advised Jake to be ready to counter-hit Kronwall, which was the best part of Jake’s best game last season.

Number 4: James Hutton

The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree, as evidenced by the charisma of James Hutton. All I really need to show you to make the case for James is 1:59 to 2:05 of the Canucks Father’s trip. First he’s all animated, cracking the boys up beside the bus, and then boom – camera cuts to him front and center with a brewskie. Legend.

Number 3: Torbjorn Pettersson

Calm and collected on the outside, Torbjorn’s molten core erupts any time you see Petey light the lamp. Look at him here, resplendent in a leather jacket, pumping his fist after Pettersson scores the Le Mat championship-winning goal. Oi oi oi.

Just a great performance from a consummate professional – driven home with that signature Pettersson flair.

Number 2: Duke Boeser

On any given night, Duke Boeser might top this list. He enjoyed a long stretch at number one following Boeser’s first game in the NHL, when he read the opening lineup to the squad.] The perseverance and bravery of Duke Boeser are both well-documented and are by all accounts instrumental in making Brock the man he is today.

Brock lists Duke as his hero in this underrated promo video from back in highschool in which he also says bananas are his favourite food starting with “B.” As the hero of a young man who is becoming the hero of kids across the province, Duke Boeser reminds us of what is important.

Number 1: Tim Horvat

Really, was there ever any doubt?

Channeling his inner Kyle Wellwood, Tim Horvat cheers like a man possessed for not just Bo, but every single Canuck. He was mic’d up during the father’s trip and is also in attendance at most Canucks games in Ontario, Detroit and Buffalo, frantically chewing up and talking up the seats around him.

An absolute tour de force, Tim is as much a workhorse in the stands as Bo is a workhorse on the ice. His infectious passion for the team propels him to first on this list just as his voice propels hoots and hollers from the seats the the ice. Tim Horvat is a Ford F150 covered in Canucks flags in the shape of a man. All we can really do is behold him.

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That wraps up this edition of the bi-annual Canucks Dad Power Rankings. If you are interested in how these rankings are compiled, proprietary data and modeling is available by subscribing to my Patreon. Finally, I’d like to emphasize that these rankings are by no means definitive. They should be seen as a catalyst for discussion of dads on the team and dads in general.

 

This weekend saw the Canadian Women’s Hockey League’s two Chinese teams, the Shenzhen-based Vanke Rays and the Beijing-based Kunlun Red Star, each collect their first win on Canadian soil.

If that statement caught you by surprise, don’t worry. While many of us were tuning out during the offseason, the CWHL was busy completing an ambitious and creative expansion into China. These two teams entered the fold less than 3 months ago, and in the blink of an eye they are winning games in Calgary and Toronto.

This is a great milestone for women’s hockey, hockey in China, and hockey in general. In the wake of well-publicized NHL exhibition games in Shanghai and Beijing in September (which were great fun), I want to take this opportunity to highlight this new partnership between the CWHL and Chinese hockey, and how beneficial it really might be for growth of the game in China more broadly.

As a bit of a backgrounder, the Rays and Red Star entered the CWHL this year as China-based franchise teams. The unique partnership is intended to help build the women’s game in China, and also brings the CWHL in contact with valuable sponsors in China and an increased audience. Kunlun Red Star are actually affiliated with the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) team of the same name, and we find ourselves in a strange world where the CWHL has a closer partnership with a top KHL club than it does with any NHL club. Did anyone call that?

The first thing many people wonder about is the travel schedule. The league is spread across Canada already, and now they’ve decided to take on the other end of the Pacific Ocean as well. The solution is actually pretty simple. The Rays and Red Star play against each other primarily in China, and each do a tour of North America. Canadian teams also visit China for a series once per season. With regular-season games coming 1 or 2 weeks apart, this is manageable. But I’m still curious: are there two teams in a regular-season sports league more distant than the Shenzhen Rays and the Boston Blades?

While comprised of mostly Chinese players, the Rays and Red Star were each allowed to draft a few North American players upon entering the league. They have young excellent American and Canadian talent on their rosters, such as Shiann Darkangelo, Carley Mercer, and Zoe Hickel. And the arrangement is nothing short of fantastic for Chinese players like Beiwei Yu and Zhixin Liu (both of whom have Olympic expierence), as it provides an opportunity to play against elite talent in women’s hockey.

And that is where this quiet arrangement might just be a big part of building hockey in China: it provides a fast-track to improving China’s already competitive women’s national team ahead of the Beijing Olympics. While China’s men’s team still sits low in international rankings (37^th), the women are just outside of division 1 (hovering around 16^th for the last 5 years), and this is just the opportunity they need to take the next step. And in helping build a competitive Chinese team, the CWHL is making a huge contribution to international women’s hockey in general, which has suffered from a lack of competition out of a select few top teams.

You can’t really overstate the popularity of the Olympics in China. A few wins or even a darling run from the hosting Chinese team would attract a lot of first time viewers. If they somehow manage to secure a medal, forget about it.

We are, of course, a long way from Beijing 2022. But I’ve been waiting for an opportunity to write about this, and I’m using these two wins as an excuse. The CWHL’s Chinese expansion is creative, daring, and might just turn out to be brilliant. 加油！